Dustin provides support with forecasts and analyses related to the global packaging market, including single- and multi-client studies. Prior to joining RISI's packaging team, Dustin worked on RISI's fiber team for over two years, assisting with such publications as RISI's World Pulp Monthly, the World Pulp and Recovered Paper Forecast, and the World Dissolving Pulp Monitor. He also contributed to several multi-client studies including the Outlook for the World Dissolving Pulp Market (2013) and the Outlook for the World Fluff Pulp Market (2014). Dustin holds a Master's Degree from Brandeis University in International Finance and Economics and a Bachelor's Degree in Economics and Political Science from the University of Maine.
Global Boxboard Outlook
Tuesday, 1 March, 2016
Boxboard is one of the fastest growing sectors of the global forest products industry. However, the Chinese boxboard industry has been in the midst of a massive round of capacity expansion for the last five years, with new supply in that market exceeding global growth in demand. Not surprisingly, this has led to significant shifts in global trade. As recently as 2011, China was a net importer of boxboard. However, that changed in 2012, and the country's net exports approached 1.0 million tonnes in 2014. As a result, global exporters have not only been displaced from the Chinese market, the largest in the world, but are also facing increased competition in other rapidly growing parts of the world, such as the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and even Europe and the Americas.
There was some hope that the global trade situation would improve after 2016 as the current round of capacity expansion in China came to a close. However, that was before three European graphic paper companies announced plans to convert mills to produce virgin cartonboard grades. This will extend the imbalances in the global markets out to at least 2017, barring any other unannounced conversions. While the new capacity may be needed to meet long-term demand growth for the boxboard grades, the timing indicates that there will be at least three more years of a difficult environment for exporters.