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MENG Li

Conference

Economist, Asian Graphic Paper

RISI

Li joined RISI in 2011 as the Asian graphic paper economist, and her responsibilities are focused on collecting Asian graphic paper market information, and analyzing, modeling and forecasting market data with scientific methods such as statistics, macroeconomics, mathematical economics and microeconometrics.

She is the co-author of RISI’s Asian Pulp & Paper Monitor as well as quarterly and long-term forecast on Asian graphic paper market, and is working with the project team on various multi and single client study on global and Asian graphic paper market. Li holds a Ph.D. of applied economics from Auburn University, USA.

Presentation

Outlook for the Asian Graphic Paper Market with the Emphasis on China and India

14:00
Day Three 2018

Wednesday, 23 May, 2018

The year of 2017 was full of surprise.

Asian graphic paper demand crept up 0.4% or 215,000 tonnes to 56.2 million tonnes in the year, better performance than our anticipation of a 1% decline in the middle of 2017, thanks to a 725,000 tonne gain in printing & writing paper demand which was about a predicted 70,000 tonne decrease in July 2017. The trade situation in 2017 was far from what we anticipated in our July 2017 forecast as well. Newsprint net imports climbed 425,000 tonnes in 2017, a sharper upturn than the 350,000 tonnes we had projected. Printing & writing paper net exports slumped 25% or 630,000 tonnes, a drastic downturn compared to the predicted 85,000 tonne decline. For pricing, woodfree paper prices in Hong Kong began to trend upward in January and rose gradually throughout most of the year, except from May to July when prices temporarily stabilized for uncoated woodfree grades and edged down US$5/tonne for coated woodfree. Announcements of price hikes were released nearly every month, and average uncoated woodfree paper prices in Hong Kong successfully increased US$145/tonne between January and the end of the year, while coated woodfree paper prices gained US$80/tonne over the same time frame.

So what’s the implication of the incredible situation for Asian and global graphic paper suppliers? What will happen in 2018 and 2019? How is the trade situation will be changed? We will provide our perspectives and also will give emphasis on Chinese and Indian markets to see how they will influence the regional and global graphic paper markets.

 

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