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Program

Monday, 28 October, 2019 - 12:00

Day One

12:00pm

Registration and light lunch

12:45pm

Welcome remarks

1:00pm

Panel discussion:Challenges facing wood products markets in 2019 & beyond

  • BC and to lesser extent PNW capacity losses and the long term consequences
  • Impacts of US and Canadian trade and tariff dispute
  • US South mill run up – will all stated openings and expansions come to pass?
1:45pm

Wood products end-use markets outlook – residential and non-residential, industrial production, furniture demand

  • The current situation of residential repair and remodelling
  • Exploring levels of non-residential construction
  • How industrial production is shaping the housing sector
  • Impacts of furniture demand and production
2:00pm

North American Lumber Outlook– Another tumultuous year for the industry

  • Review the wave capacity curtailments in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest along with the rampup of sawmill capacity in the US South
  • Address the sluggish demand performance and key causes in 2019
  • Updates on the trade war and US-Canadian lumber dispute
  • What this means for the demand and supply balance for lumber over the coming years and risks ahead
2:30pm

Coffee and Tea Networking Break

3:00pm

Structural panels outlook – OSB capacity, import levels, profitability

  • The outlook for supply and demand
  • OSB capacity and levels within North America currently
  • Offshore import levels within structural panels
  • Exploring current and future profitability levels in the sector
3:30pm

Non-structural panels & EWP outlook – particleboard and MDF demand and design trends

  • Forecasting particleboard production and demand
  • MDF – Capacity and demand
  • Future design trends for interiors 
4:00pm

Fireside Chat with Industry CEO

4:45pm

Closing remarks

6:00pm

Registration and Networking Reception

Tuesday, 29 October, 2019 - 08:00

Day Two

8:00am

Registration

9:00am

Welcome remarks and presentation of the CEO of the Year Award

9:30am

Keynote address from CEO winner Brad Southern

  • Understanding the work and initiatives over the last 12 months that have led FM RISI to award the CEO of the Year title
  • The personal work of the CEO of the Year to achieve this
  • Exploring the recent success stories of the organisation
  • How the vision of the CEO will shape the corporate strategy of the winning organisation over the next 12 months
10:00am

Moderator

Panelists

CEO Panel – Trade and Trump tweets, tomorrow’s biggest industry issues, economic uncertainty, M&A, plastics

Sponsored by:

 

  • Assessing the extent that fiber is driving M&A within the industry
  • Macro and micro deal drivers behind the market movements
  • A frank assessment of industry performance
  • The likely prevalence of future private equity backing
  • Opportunities presented by the war on plastic – Are we ready for the challenge?
10:40am

Coffee and Tea Networking Break

11:10am

Macroeconomic overview – slowdown or recovery in the age of uncertainty

  • Where are we in terms of recovery?
  • Charting whether US growth will continue to increase
  • What needs to happen to facilitate this?
  • Exploring how the US and Chinese economies are intertwined
  • Trade disputes
11:50am

Housing market – continuing underperformance, outlook for single-family and multifamily housing starts

  • The housing market recovery continues to underwhelm, despite low unemployment
  • Even with solid demographics, affordability concerns are stifling single family demand.
  • Multifamily demand remains solid, but lot availability and higher costs are making It challenging for construction to accelerate
  • This presentation will examine the underlying fundamental demand for shelter and household formations and what that will mean for housing starts through 2021.
12:20pm

Networking Lunch Break

1:50pm

John North

International Timber Economist

Fastmarkets RISI

International timber: agroforestry, log market trade wars, record volumes for chips in Asian markets

  • Agroforestry: While primarily a sector attracting only “impact investing” firms today, agroforestry and silvopastoral practices may offer benefits for main-line TIMOs and pension fund investors as well, in some situations.
  • International Log Markets: How have the “trade wars” impacted US exports of softwood and hardwood logs.
  • International Woodchip Markets: Record volumes being set in the Asian markets yet again in 2018, but a supply crisis is looming. News from RISI’s 10th International Woodfiber Conference in Durban.
2:20pm

Peter Barynin

Principal Economist, North American Timber

Fastmarkets RISI

North American Timber Outlook – Expected market solutions to the changing availability of wood fiber in the US South and BC

  • Quantifying harvest potential and the problem
  • Implications for industry restructuring and investment cycles
  • Identifying how long will these supply issues will last
2:50pm

Global Pulp Outlook: What a difference a year can make. The dramatic shift from tight markets to bloated inventories

  • Scoping supply and demand levels within the market
  • How environmental policies in China are continuing to shape international trade
  • Outlining and overcoming the major supply side disruptions
3:20pm

Coffee and Tea Networking Break

4:15pm

Global packaging M&A - intercontinental deal strategies: evanescent or inevitable?

  • Global & Regional Packaging and Paper M&A
  • Industry Performance
  • Macro & Micro Packaging Deal Drivers
  • Private Equity
  • M&A Outlook
4:45pm

Fiber replacing plastics, some great progress being made

  • The major global packaging innovation trends revealed
  • The brands and retailers getting packaging innovation right
  • Assessing the impact of the growing consumer desire for sustainability
  • How global anti-plastic sentiment is affecting fibre-based product demand and how plastic is fighting back
  • The impact of ‘greenwashing’ on influencing consumer demand

 

5:30pm

Cocktail Reception

Wednesday, 30 October, 2019 - 08:00

Day Three

8:00am

Registration

9:00am

North American boxboard outlook – impacts of trade war, China RCP policy, war on plastic and ecommerce

  • Market Conditions and Global Outlook
9:30am

The impact of e-commerce on North American containerboard markets

  • Update on North American e-commerce growth trends
  • Impact of e-commerce on containerboard demand and market balance
  • Important risks and trends in e-commerce packaging
10:00am

Ken Waghorne

Vice President, Global Packaging Paper

Fastmarkets RISI

North American containerboard outlook – Domestic, global and the effects of new capacity

  • Market Conditions and Global Outlook
  • Conversions – what impact are they having?
10:30am

Coffee and Tea Networking Break

11:00am

Panelists

Anish Patel

General Superintendent Production - Containerboard

Kruger

Big data in action – how much difference is IIoT making at mills

11:30am

Moderator

Panelists

Anish Patel

General Superintendent Production - Containerboard

Kruger

Panel Discussion: Running a mill in the 21st Century

  • Knocking days off mill maintenance shutdowns
  • Methods of digitally measuring and managing production for better efficiencies
12:40pm

Networking Lunch Break

2:10pm

Panelists

Ryan Burgess

Product Manager - Mill Intelligence

Fastmarkets RISI

Sheila Rezak

Product Manager - Mill Intelligence

Fastmarkets RISI

The United States of corrugators (and Canada, too): A regional comparative of the corrugated supply chain

  • Background: Why corrugators study? What factors can affect corrugating plant competitiveness?
  • Basic of corrugating and methodology
  • Regional characteristics
  • Containerboard cost competitiveness in North America
2:40pm

Hannah Zhao

Senior Economist, Global Recovered Paper

Fastmarkets RISI

The global RCP markets - the great uncertainty over Asia

  • China's RCP import regulation and the impact on global RCP markets
  • Changing demand/supply dynamics in North American RCP Markets
  • Uncertainty over Asia
3:10pm

Specialty fibers: are dissolving pulp & fluff pulp really insulated from paper grade volatility?

  • Overview of the global dissolving pulp and fluff pulp markets
  • Examining key demand drivers: VSF capacity expansion, demographic trends and growth in per capita income
  • Outlook for supply: ambitious capacity expansion plans have been announced for DP, but much less so for fluff
  • Potential pitfalls: pricing parity for substitute goods and shifting consumer preferences in crucial emerging markets
3:40pm

Coffee and Tea Networking Break

4:00pm

Global tissue outlook - North American market in a very dynamic phase

  • Recent years showed very strong growth in North America – will it continue?
  • Trade wars continue – what could be the consequences?
  • What are the main reasons for the ongoing major investment wave?
  • Will changing quality requirements lead to restructuring in the industry?
  • Global outlook – will overcapacity continue?
4:30pm

John Maine

Vice President, Graphic Papers

Fastmarkets RISI

Global outlook for graphic papers: accelerating demand slide and waning opportunities for conversions mean tough choices and decline in profitability

  • Demand forecast by grade for every region of the world
  • Possible acceleration of demand slide in developed world
  • A few countries such as India still growing
  • Numerous capacity closures/conversions offsetting demand slide in Europe and North America
  • Future opportunities for conversions to packaging are limited
  • Capacity growth has slowed or stopped in Asia
  • Trade wars causing explosion of tariff protection measures and distorting word trade and prices
  • Profitability for the industry could deteriorate over the next two years from a peak in early 2019
  • More consolidation likely as the market continues to shrink
5:00pm

Close of Conference

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