Thirty Fourth Annual
North American Conference
October 28-30, 2019
Seaport Hotel | Boston, USA
An in-depth look at the major non-housing end-use markets for wood products including RISI's two year outlook. Markets covered include: Residential Repair and Remodeling, Non-Residential Construction, Industrial Production and Furniture Production, with a brief overview of our housing outlook.
While demand for North American softwood lumber continues to be fueled by solid growth in US residential construction and R&R, numerous supply-side challenges including transportation delays, trade disputes, fiber availability and tight labor markets have made it particularly challenging for shipments to keep pace. The combination of factors contributed to especially tight market conditions in early 2018, sending softwood lumber prices surging to record highs in many cases. In this presentation, we will examine the sequence of events that has lead to the challenging market environment in North America, along with RISI’s demand outlook over the next two years and an overview of how capacity developments will likely unfold.
This presentation will outline our outlook for supply, demand, costs, and profitability in the North American structural panel market. It will include a discussion of:
- OSB capacity in 2018 and the potential for further future mill expansions/restarts
- Offshore imports and how they will impact the structural panels market, particularly plywood
- OSB profitability improvement in 2018 and prospects for 2019.
An overview of the North American particleboard, MDF, LVL and wood I-joist markets including discussion of:
Presented to Steve Voorhees, CEO of WestRock
The presentation will discuss WestRock's growth patterns and M&A activity, and e-commerce growth and expectations in the corrugated business.
A global macroeconomic outlook assessing where we are in the economic cycle? What do the next 12-18 months hold?
Housing demand fundamentals are healthy, but the US housing market continues to underperform. This presentation will review recent developments in the US shelter market, including demand (demographics and household formations), supply (impediments and vacancy rates), pricing (home prices and rent), and market conditions (credit availability). The outlook will include a forecast for shelter production based on the shelter fundamentals and RISI's outlook for the US economy and then break this forecast of shelter production into single-family and multifamily housing starts.
Timber markets are out of equilibrium. This includes unusually large price spreads for wood fiber that have developed internationally and within local markets. Meanwhile, trade wars, reduced timber supplies in BC, and other supply side disruptions all continue to upset markets from finding an equilibrium. The notion of ‘disequilibrium’ presents an opportunity for some stakeholder and a challenge for others. This presentation identifies some of the imbalances that have developed in the North American wood fiber markets, changes in regional competitiveness, and a two-year outlook for timber prices in North America.
Shocks on both the demand and supply side of the global fiber industry have combined to create extraordinarily tight market conditions. The entire pulp and paper industry is still adjusting to the reverberations emanating from the strict environmental policies recently imposed in China and bracing for potentially more stringent policies in the near future. Meanwhile, supply side disruptions have become the norm, keeping the market exceedingly tight and creating additional uncertainty. This presentation will discuss current conditions in the global fiber market including the far-reaching impacts of the environmental policies enacted in China, the continued cycle of supply side disruptions and the implications for our near-term outlook.
Tariffs and trade flows have become major issues for North American graphic paper, with the US taking action on duties for nearly every grade of graphic paper over the past few years. These duties have had varying impacts on their respective paper markets, with a particularly profound impact for the duties on Canadian exports to the USA. This presentation will also examine the outlook for further major shifts in trade affecting the North American market and the market’s potential exposure to further impacts from duties in the context of global pulp and paper market.
This presentation will review current market conditions, as well as RISI’s two-year outlook for the following markets in North America: domestic pellets, biomass power and industrial export pellets. Relevant global updates will also be included.